markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-10Spain leading at halftime?
Polymarket top market 'Spain leading at halftime?': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-10Bitcoin Up or Down on July 10?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 10?': YES=95.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 10?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-10Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5': YES=31.25%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-10Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)
Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-10Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Belgium?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Belgium?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-10Spain vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime?
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime?': YES=42.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-10Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=10.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-10LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 2 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 2 Winner': YES=68.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?': YES=8.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-10Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Belgium?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Belgium?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-10Spain vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5': YES=32.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-10Spread: Norway (-4.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Norway (-4.5)': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-10Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?': YES=90.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-10Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners': YES=52.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-10Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Belgium?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Belgium?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?': YES=4.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs BIG - Map 1 Winner': YES=47.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=11.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-10Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Belgium?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Belgium?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: FaZe vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - XSE Pro League Playoffs': YES=40.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-10Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Belgium?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Belgium?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Draymond Green play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=37.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=14.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-10Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-10Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Belgium?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Belgium?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-10Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Belgium?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Belgium?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=44.00%
market:polymarket