markets

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=54.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=54.00%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=7.53%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=74.92%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=11.08%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=53.42%

Manifold consensus on 'Will @Champion1024 get a girlfriend before NVIDIA market cap hits 5.5 trillion USD?': YES=53.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips': YES=9.82%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: OG vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5': YES=55.50%

Polymarket top market 'Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance': YES=73.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?': YES=2.10%

Polymarket top market 'Newport: Reese Brantmeier vs Elizabeth Mandlik': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Draymond Green play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=3.80%

Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5': YES=41.75%

Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals': YES=2.70%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Morocco (-2.5)': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=14.60%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=5.00%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. Morocco: France O/U 2.5': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Fery vs Alexander Zverev': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=14.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.30%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Any Other Score?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'France vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5': YES=2.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?': YES=22.75%

Polymarket top market 'Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.80%