markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-28 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)
Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=78.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Polymarket top market 'Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates': YES=46.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 England?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Brandon Lowe hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance': YES=75.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score
Polymarket top market 'Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 England?': YES=4.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Juan Soto hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5': YES=56.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?': YES=26.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 England?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs': YES=87.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=70.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=14.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?': YES=24.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=17.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mike Trout hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Will England win on 2026-07-11?
Polymarket top market 'Will England win on 2026-07-11?': YES=50.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-11Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Norway vs. England: Team to Advance': YES=35.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=37.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will no listed leader be out before 2027?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=5.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-11Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=21.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=7.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket