markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=64.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?': YES=29.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=46.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5)': YES=14.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 12?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 12?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?': YES=39.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5': YES=52.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-12Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=11.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev': YES=80.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 9z vs PARIVISION (BO5) - XSE Pro League Playoffs': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Will France win on 2026-07-14?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win on 2026-07-14?': YES=43.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Polymarket top market 'Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs': YES=44.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner': YES=14.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: Team to Advance': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-12Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=19.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-12Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=37.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=20.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=18.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=7.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket