markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
- 2026-07-12Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 15?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Spread: France (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: France (-1.5)': YES=21.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-12Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?': YES=78.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-12Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=53.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Spain?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-12Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-12Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026?': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?
Polymarket top market 'World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-12Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5)': YES=40.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=59.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Spain?': YES=4.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 12?': YES=98.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score': YES=61.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=35.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?': YES=29.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=55.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=80.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=6.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=4.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=6.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=64.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?': YES=46.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 12?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 12?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket