markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=3.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?': YES=41.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-12France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5': YES=52.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev': YES=80.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 9z vs PARIVISION (BO5) - XSE Pro League Playoffs': YES=50.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs': YES=61.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Will France win on 2026-07-14?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win on 2026-07-14?': YES=43.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-12Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Polymarket top market 'Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-12France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: Team to Advance': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-12Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-12Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=39.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=19.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=7.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarket