markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=32.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=57.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Argentina?': YES=3.40%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-14Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Argentina?': YES=2.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?': YES=0.10%
XAImarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?': YES=18.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Argentina?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 14?': YES=4.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14France vs. Spain: France O/U 0.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: France O/U 0.5': YES=79.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=40.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?': YES=4.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=71.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-14France vs. Spain: O/U 1.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: O/U 1.5': YES=77.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Spain?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-14Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=6.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 14?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=80.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-14Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Spain?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-14Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Spain?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Spain?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mookie Betts win the 2026 National League MVP Award?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 14?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?': YES=12.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 15?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-14England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance': YES=55.25%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-14Spread: France (-2.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: France (-2.5)': YES=6.75%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score': YES=52.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14France vs. Spain: O/U 0.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. Spain: O/U 0.5': YES=92.75%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=36.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=3.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-14Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Spain?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-14Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Spain?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket