markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket consensus on 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=6.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=5.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=5.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=14.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=20.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Polymarket consensus on 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=4.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=19.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=22.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=58.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?': YES=97.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?': YES=49.60%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Trump out as President before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Trump out as President before GTA VI?': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?': YES=49.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
Polymarket consensus on 'New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket Manifold consensus on 'Will a new, full-length Stargate series premiere in 2023?': YES=2.14%
market:manifold- 2026-07-15Will we get new Stargate before 2025?
Manifold consensus on 'Will we get new Stargate before 2025?': YES=1.00%
market:manifold Manifold consensus on 'Will President Trump speak negatively about Sam Altman by the end of February 2025?': YES=1.00%
market:manifoldManifold consensus on 'In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion "Stargate"?': YES=4.57%
MSFTmarket:manifold