markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
- 2026-07-15Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?': YES=6.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?': YES=92.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?': YES=57.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Gen.G vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B': YES=87.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 15?': YES=99.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=38.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15England leading at halftime?
Polymarket top market 'England leading at halftime?': YES=28.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15England vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5
Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5': YES=21.25%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15ITF Granby: Mao Mushika vs Cadence Brace
Polymarket top market 'ITF Granby: Mao Mushika vs Cadence Brace': YES=48.70%
CDNSmarket:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 15?': YES=79.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Cordenons: Peter Makk vs Thiago Seyboth Wild': YES=31.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 15?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=53.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: G2 Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A': YES=79.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 15?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?
Polymarket top market 'World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Lorenzo Sonego': YES=67.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Spread: England (-2.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: England (-2.5)': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Argentina?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Trump out as President by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by July 31?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Argentina?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'England vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners': YES=45.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=7.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=4.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=3.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=50.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?': YES=33.25%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=16.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-15Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Argentina?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-15Spread: England (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: England (-1.5)': YES=14.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?': YES=14.60%
market:polymarket