markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
- 2026-07-16Will the New York Mets have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?
Polymarket top market 'Will the New York Mets have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?
Polymarket top market 'World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=95.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: JD Gaming vs MIBR.LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16Will France win on 2026-07-18?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win on 2026-07-18?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=37.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'ODI Series England vs India: England vs India': YES=79.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Iasi Open: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Paula Badosa': YES=75.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=62.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?': YES=2.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=58.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=41.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=41.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=7.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket