markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?': YES=67.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=7.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?': YES=6.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=98.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?': YES=49.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=85.00%
NVDAmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Swiss Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Miomir Kecmanovic': YES=56.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs': YES=32.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=40.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card)': YES=31.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16Will France win on 2026-07-18?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win on 2026-07-18?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D': YES=73.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-16Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?': YES=43.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-16Bitcoin Up or Down on July 16?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 16?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=41.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?': YES=36.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?': YES=12.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 16?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 16?': YES=98.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?': YES=90.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?
Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=39.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?': YES=0.10%
MOONSHOTmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16Will the Detroit Tigers have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Detroit Tigers have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 16?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 16?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=31.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Sentinels vs Gen.G (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group B': YES=7.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=90.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=7.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarket