markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?': YES=0.10%
MOONSHOTmarket:polymarket- 2026-07-16Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?': YES=3.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16Will the Detroit Tigers have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Detroit Tigers have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C': YES=58.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=90.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 15?': YES=2.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Los Angeles Knight Riders': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=9.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?': YES=5.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?
Polymarket top market 'World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16Will the New York Mets have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?
Polymarket top market 'Will the New York Mets have the highest ABS success rate during the 2026 MLB regular season?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Stefanos Tsitsipas': YES=35.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=4.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever
Polymarket top market 'Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever': YES=72.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=35.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=95.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=65.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-16Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=57.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=42.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=41.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket