markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
- 2026-07-17Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?': YES=43.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17Exact Score: France 0 - 0 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 0 - 0 England?': YES=3.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17France vs. England: O/U 3.5
Polymarket top market 'France vs. England: O/U 3.5': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti
Polymarket top market 'Rome: Deborah Chiesa vs Lucia Bronzetti': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5': YES=42.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?
Polymarket top market 'Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Croatia Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Alex Molcan': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Exact Score: France 3 - 1 England?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: France 3 - 1 England?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Argentina?': YES=3.30%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17Will France vs. England end in a draw?
Polymarket top market 'Will France vs. England end in a draw?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=94.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-17Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Polymarket top market 'Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Polymarket top market 'Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Will France win on 2026-07-18?
Polymarket top market 'Will France win on 2026-07-18?': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17France vs. England: Team to Win
Polymarket top market 'France vs. England: Team to Win': YES=66.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Polymarket top market 'Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=59.10%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-17Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?
Polymarket top market 'Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': YES=40.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=41.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=7.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarket