markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=55.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=7.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs 1WIN (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Playoffs': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=31.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Hamburg European Open: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Anhelina Kalinina': YES=31.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 24?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=7.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=11.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 20?': YES=2.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Zug: Cezar Cretu vs Kimmer Coppejans
Polymarket top market 'Zug: Cezar Cretu vs Kimmer Coppejans': YES=49.70%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-20Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-20Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-20Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-20Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=31.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 20?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Trump out as President by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by July 31?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-20Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 20?': YES=99.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Livesport Prague Open: Alycia Parks vs Lucie Havlickova': YES=44.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Hamburg European Open: Katarzyna Kawa vs Paula Badosa': YES=46.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=75.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Tampere: Daniel Galan vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly': YES=13.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Livesport Prague Open: Veronika Podrez vs Carol Young Suh Lee': YES=6.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=47.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 20?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Omega': YES=39.00%
market:polymarket