markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=53.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=7.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=4.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: 3v Team vs NCG Esports (BO3) - LRN Regular season': YES=51.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=12.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=10.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=30.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=24.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-20Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-20Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-20Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 20?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=11.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=44.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Trump out as President by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by July 31?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage': YES=43.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=74.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=36.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=37.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Iasi Open: Mayar Sherif vs Paula Badosa
Polymarket top market 'Iasi Open: Mayar Sherif vs Paula Badosa': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=6.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-20Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=93.50%
market:polymarket