markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
- 2026-07-22Iran leadership change by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by July 31?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on July 22?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Will PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-07-22?
Polymarket top market 'Will PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-07-22?': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?': YES=79.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 31?': YES=34.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-22Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=69.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on July 22?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=8.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 22?': YES=98.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 22?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?': YES=10.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 22?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?': YES=71.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=10.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 31?': YES=22.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Desire Doue win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Trump out as President by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by July 31?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-22Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Generali Open: Quentin Halys vs Valentin Vacherot': YES=66.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Indiana Pacers in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bukayo Saka win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees
Polymarket top market 'Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees': YES=39.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?': YES=65.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Hamburg European Open: Tessa Brockmann vs Elsa Jacquemot': YES=39.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=4.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket