markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=26.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Generali Open: Sebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech': YES=56.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=40.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?': YES=97.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?': YES=99.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?': YES=41.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?': YES=46.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?': YES=41.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=8.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Hamburg European Open: Simona Waltert vs Mayar Sherif': YES=47.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=30.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 22?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?': YES=96.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier': YES=23.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?': YES=78.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=72.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Will FC Seoul win on 2026-07-22?
Polymarket top market 'Will FC Seoul win on 2026-07-22?': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?': YES=26.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Segovia: Yi Zhou vs Luka Pavlovic
Polymarket top market 'Segovia: Yi Zhou vs Luka Pavlovic': YES=9.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Polymarket top market 'Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=49.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=13.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=85.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-22Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
Polymarket top market 'Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket consensus on 'Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=27.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=41.70%
market:polymarket