markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
- 2026-07-24Iran full airspace closure by July 24?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by July 24?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?': YES=4.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 24?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5)': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=17.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 24?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?': YES=2.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 24?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 24?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?': YES=28.00%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Estoril Open: Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche': YES=79.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 24?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies': YES=44.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23?': YES=99.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 24?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=72.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=94.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?': YES=55.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=52.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 24?': YES=82.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24?': YES=23.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?': YES=0.30%
GOOGLmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire (BO5) - European Pro League Series 8 Playoffs': YES=39.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by July 24?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Heroic vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?': YES=95.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?': YES=41.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Generali Open: Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Etcheverry': YES=80.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Segovia: Paul Inchauspe vs Keegan Smith
Polymarket top market 'Segovia: Paul Inchauspe vs Keegan Smith': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=3.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=30.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=23.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=46.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Estoril Open: Tiago Torres vs Hugo Gaston': YES=8.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?': YES=78.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier': YES=12.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=44.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-24Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?
Polymarket top market 'Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket