markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=38.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Valorant: Sentinels vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Dignitas vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-26Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Polymarket top market 'Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-26Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins
Polymarket top market 'Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins': YES=31.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?': YES=85.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-26Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles
Polymarket top market 'Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles': YES=48.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-26Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Polymarket top market 'Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-26Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets': YES=96.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Boxing: Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?': YES=99.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=78.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Dignitas vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-26Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Polymarket top market 'Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers': YES=2.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-26Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?': YES=97.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?': YES=30.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Dignitas vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-26Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-07-25?
Polymarket top market 'Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-07-25?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-26Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-26Will New York City FC win on 2026-07-25?
Polymarket top market 'Will New York City FC win on 2026-07-25?': YES=98.80%
market:polymarket - 2026-07-26Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
Polymarket top market 'Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox': YES=95.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-07-25?': YES=89.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?': YES=99.60%
market:polymarket- 2026-07-26Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-07-25?
Polymarket top market 'Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-07-25?': YES=84.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=8.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarket