markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiKeeps: question, probability (quote)
Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Iran full airspace closure by August 15?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=2.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5': YES=57.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group': YES=53.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs ex-GUARA (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-042026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Polymarket top market '2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House': YES=46.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Zeu5 Esports vs 3v Team (BO5) - LRN Playoffs': YES=59.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs BIG - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Canadian Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Botic van de Zandschulp': YES=54.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Shuai Zhang vs Jelena Ostapenko': YES=61.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=76.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-04Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=88.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'The Hundred: Sunrisers Leeds vs London Spirit': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=24.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Polymarket top market 'Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals': YES=57.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5': YES=57.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?': YES=7.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Gabriel Diallo': YES=42.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5': YES=53.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=81.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Exact Score: CF Villarreal C 0 - 0 Levante UD?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Polymarket top market 'Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles': YES=42.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs BIG - Game 2 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=53.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=84.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians
Polymarket top market 'New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians': YES=44.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Shamrock Rovers FC win on 2026-08-06?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys': YES=5.00%
KEYSmarket:polymarket- 2026-08-04Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies
Polymarket top market 'Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-04Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds
Polymarket top market 'Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=78.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?': YES=4.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market '0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?': YES=97.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Ici Japon Corp. Esport vs Skillcamp Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-04Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket