markets

Polymarket/Manifold/Kalshi

2,680 events on 2026-08-07role: thematic30d fetch windowcadence: contextaccess: keyless

Extracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt

Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.

Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.

Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data

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2026-08-07Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?': YES=70.50%
GOOGLmarket:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?
Polymarket top market 'Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=72.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=70.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=90.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07National Bank Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez
Polymarket top market 'National Bank Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Leylah Fernandez': YES=76.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=71.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on August 7?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on August 7?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Valorant: All Gamers vs Trace Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins
Polymarket top market 'Valorant: All Gamers vs Trace Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins': YES=46.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
Polymarket top market 'Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=37.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Polymarket top market 'Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=98.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-072026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
Polymarket top market '2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=87.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07LoL: BoostGate Esports vs SU Esports - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: BoostGate Esports vs SU Esports - Game 1 Winner': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Xi Jinping out before 2027?': YES=4.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in August?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=23.80%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=2.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=10.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=86.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Polymarket top market 'Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=88.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 7?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 7?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=71.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Bitcoin Up or Down on August 7?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 7?': YES=43.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?
Polymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?': YES=99.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=49.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?
Polymarket top market 'Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 7?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 7?': YES=99.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=4.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-07Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?': YES=44.00%
market:polymarket