markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=93.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?': YES=96.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 8?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: ECHO vs OG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 9': YES=49.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=59.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=2.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 4.5': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)': YES=55.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=93.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?': YES=22.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 2.5': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=2.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?': YES=19.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?': YES=36.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 16': YES=39.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 8?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Iran leadership change by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by December 31?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?': YES=6.70%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=86.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=92.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana': YES=70.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Metizport (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 12': YES=73.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=76.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 8?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 8?': YES=99.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?': YES=10.00%
GOOGLmarket:polymarket- 2026-08-08Bitcoin Up or Down on August 8?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 8?': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-08Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-08-07?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-08Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-08Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 3-9?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 3-9?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 8?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Phantom (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 10': YES=55.00%
market:polymarket