markets

Polymarket/Manifold/Kalshi

2,680 events on 2026-08-09role: thematic30d fetch windowcadence: contextaccess: keyless

Extracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt

Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.

Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.

Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data

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2026-08-09Trump out as President by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 3-9?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 3-9?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner': YES=83.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 9?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 9?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=3.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Polymarket top market 'Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Iran leadership change by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran leadership change by August 31?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs LNG Esports (+1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs LNG Esports (+1.5)': YES=79.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs DENDELE CS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs DENDELE CS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins': YES=32.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=86.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
Polymarket top market 'Will Newcastle United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
Polymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=28.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins': YES=34.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?': YES=86.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?': YES=99.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana': YES=95.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner': YES=25.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins': YES=55.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group': YES=47.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Counter-Strike: Sinners vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Sinners vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=1.80%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
Polymarket top market 'Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Polymarket top market 'Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Josh Stein win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=9.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-09Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket consensus on 'Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarket