markets

Polymarket/Manifold/Kalshi

2,692 events on 2026-08-10role: thematic30d fetch windowcadence: contextaccess: keyless

Extracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt

Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.

Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.

Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data

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2026-08-10Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?': YES=2.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Polymarket top market 'Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.80%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 10?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 10?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?
Polymarket top market 'Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?': YES=65.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Ethereum Up or Down on August 10?
Polymarket top market 'Ethereum Up or Down on August 10?': YES=53.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
Polymarket top market 'LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group': YES=37.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Polymarket top market 'US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?': YES=28.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=35.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=55.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Mindfreak (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #6 Playoffs
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Mindfreak (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #6 Playoffs': YES=85.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 10?
Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 10?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 10?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 10?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?': YES=88.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 10?
Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 10?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=63.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 10?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 10?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier
Polymarket top market 'LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier': YES=35.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 10?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 10?': YES=97.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 10?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 10?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?': YES=84.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
Polymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?': YES=11.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?': YES=86.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
Polymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=4.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?': YES=65.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 10?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 10?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)
Polymarket top market 'UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=76.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?': YES=3.80%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?': YES=42.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?': YES=80.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=68.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-10Astana: Semen Pankin vs Dominik Palan
Polymarket top market 'Astana: Semen Pankin vs Dominik Palan': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket