markets

Polymarket/Manifold/Kalshi

2,644 events on 2026-08-11role: thematic30d fetch windowcadence: contextaccess: keyless

Extracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt

Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.

Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.

Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data

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2026-08-11Will Bytedance have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bytedance have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?': YES=0.10%
BYTEDANCEmarket:polymarket
2026-08-11Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=26.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 11?
Polymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 11?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?': YES=1.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=99.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?': YES=95.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=7.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
Polymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?': YES=62.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?
Polymarket top market 'Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Polymarket top market 'Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?': YES=33.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=47.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 11?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on August 11?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11ITF koksijde: Jelle Sels vs Lars Goran Verwerft
Polymarket top market 'ITF koksijde: Jelle Sels vs Lars Goran Verwerft': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Polymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=42.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=60.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
Polymarket top market 'US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?': YES=94.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
Polymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=5.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?': YES=2.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=24.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=16.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 11?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 11?': YES=99.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=67.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Polymarket top market 'Will Toronto Raptors win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=3.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=96.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?': YES=15.00%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarket
2026-08-11Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?': YES=73.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?': YES=70.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs': YES=81.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Brownsburg: Ugo Blanchet vs Rei Sakamoto
Polymarket top market 'Brownsburg: Ugo Blanchet vs Rei Sakamoto': YES=59.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 11?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 11?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 11?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?': YES=2.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=31.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-11Trump out as President by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket