markets

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=87.58%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2025?': YES=99.24%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=8.90%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=48.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=55.82%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.83%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=33.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=47.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=59.67%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=47.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 12?': YES=99.80%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?': YES=46.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC end in a draw?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs B8 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=21.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?': YES=3.50%

Polymarket top market 'Ossett United FC vs. Abbey Hey FC: Ossett United FC O/U 1.5': YES=0.95%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: Ossett United FC (-2.5)': YES=10.00%

Polymarket top market 'Ossett United FC vs. Abbey Hey FC: O/U 2.5': YES=1.45%

Polymarket top market 'Ossett United FC vs. Abbey Hey FC: Ossett United FC O/U 2.5': YES=0.05%

Polymarket top market 'Ossett United FC vs. Abbey Hey FC: O/U 1.5': YES=0.05%

Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?': YES=47.00%

Polymarket top market 'US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?': YES=28.00%

Polymarket top market 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?': YES=18.00%

Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Darwin Blanch': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 12?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=57.00%

Polymarket top market 'Brownsburg: Ugo Blanchet vs Rei Sakamoto': YES=63.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.30%