markets

Polymarket/Manifold/Kalshi

2,661 events on 2026-08-14role: thematic30d fetch windowcadence: contextaccess: keyless

Extracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt

Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.

Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.

Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data

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2026-08-14Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Polymarket top market 'Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=2.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Trump out as President by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Trump out as President by August 31?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=52.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage
Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stage': YES=38.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=14.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C': YES=65.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?': YES=71.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Feyenoord win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
Polymarket top market 'Will Feyenoord win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?': YES=80.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?': YES=7.90%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarket
2026-08-14Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner
Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner': YES=50.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)
Polymarket top market 'UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)': YES=76.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?': YES=98.80%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend': YES=55.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=22.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group
Polymarket top market 'LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 14?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 14?': YES=99.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?': YES=1.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 14?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 14?': YES=92.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: T1 Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Astana: Khumoun Sultanov vs Mert Alkaya
Polymarket top market 'Astana: Khumoun Sultanov vs Mert Alkaya': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 2 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 2 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C': YES=55.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group
Polymarket top market 'LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=96.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 14?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 14?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Dota 2: Team Resilience vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage
Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Resilience vs OG (BO3) - The International Group Stage': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?': YES=3.80%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage
Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage': YES=23.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 14?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 14?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Dota 2: Team Resilience vs OG - Game 2 Winner
Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Resilience vs OG - Game 2 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stage
Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stage': YES=39.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=13.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Counter-Strike: NIP vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: NIP vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B': YES=36.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-14Dota 2: BoomBoys vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Group Stage
Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: BoomBoys vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Group Stage': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket