markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?': YES=45.87%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 2X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=34.28%

Manifold consensus on 'Will the market for AI Inference chips be 5X larger than the market for training chips at the end of 2026?': YES=27.72%

Manifold consensus on '[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?': YES=95.79%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.': YES=13.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?': YES=19.45%

Manifold consensus on 'Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?': YES=24.71%

Manifold consensus on '6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.': YES=90.87%

Manifold consensus on 'A plane carrying NVIDIA AI chips for delivery is shot down or crashes under suspicious circumstances by mid 2027': YES=8.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?': YES=48.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?': YES=8.47%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=27.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=44.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=46.47%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=6.98%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=39.43%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=58.39%

Manifold consensus on 'In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?': YES=18.91%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=59.92%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs': YES=55.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 17?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 17?': YES=98.80%

Polymarket top market 'Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffs': YES=81.00%

Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Esport BERG (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs': YES=77.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Team Vitality Win the CS2 EWC 2026?': YES=25.00%

Polymarket top market 'Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?': YES=79.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Tottenham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=2.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=13.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will FaZe Clan Win the CS2 EWC 2026?': YES=2.60%

Polymarket top market '2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House': YES=48.00%

Polymarket top market 'Spread: AEK (-2.5)': YES=6.60%

Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 31?': YES=2.80%

Polymarket top market 'Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=16.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.60%