markets

Polymarket/Manifold/Kalshi

2,592 events on 2026-08-18role: thematic30d fetch windowcadence: contextaccess: keyless

Extracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt

Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.

Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.

Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data

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2026-08-18Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?': YES=82.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?': YES=31.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-18?
Polymarket top market 'Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-18?': YES=49.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?': YES=56.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?': YES=35.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=18.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket top market 'Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 18?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 18?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Prague 2: Petr Brunclik vs Jan Kumstat
Polymarket top market 'Prague 2: Petr Brunclik vs Jan Kumstat': YES=42.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?': YES=27.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 31?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Counter-Strike: Color vs Misa Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Group B
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Color vs Misa Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Group B': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Cincinnati Open: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges
Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges': YES=64.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group': YES=13.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
Polymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Sion: Petr Nesterov vs Calvin Hemery
Polymarket top market 'Sion: Petr Nesterov vs Calvin Hemery': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
Polymarket top market 'Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=61.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=3.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 18?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 18?': YES=99.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 18?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 18?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=64.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=32.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Prague 2: Max Hans Rehberg vs Jakub Nicod
Polymarket top market 'Prague 2: Max Hans Rehberg vs Jakub Nicod': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 1 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 18?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 18?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Prague 2: Javier Barranco Cosano vs Martin Krumich
Polymarket top market 'Prague 2: Javier Barranco Cosano vs Martin Krumich': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev
Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev': YES=44.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 18?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 18?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?': YES=65.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=35.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=72.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-18Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Polymarket top market 'Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=99.10%
market:polymarket