markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
- 2026-08-18Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Israel closes its airspace by August 31?': YES=4.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=62.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Joao Fonseca vs Christopher O'Connell': YES=50.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 18?': YES=99.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?': YES=3.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 18?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?': YES=27.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-18Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-08-17?
Polymarket top market 'Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-08-17?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=63.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 18?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=34.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev': YES=43.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs': YES=48.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=22.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=3.50%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-18Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?
Polymarket top market 'Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?': YES=58.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 18?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=73.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?': YES=4.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=99.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-18Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=1.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=36.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-18Will Club Puebla win on 2026-08-17?
Polymarket top market 'Will Club Puebla win on 2026-08-17?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=72.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?': YES=3.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=1.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=29.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket consensus on 'Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket