markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-26 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?': YES=9.39%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?': YES=86.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Shedeur Sanders be the Browns' Week 1 starting QB?': YES=33.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-24Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 24?': YES=8.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-24CA Osasuna vs. Levante UD: O/U 0.5
Polymarket top market 'CA Osasuna vs. Levante UD: O/U 0.5': YES=92.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-24Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5
Polymarket top market 'Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5': YES=54.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs': YES=70.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs FORZE Reload - Map 2 Winner': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Monterrey Open: Clara Tauson vs Renata Zarazua': YES=75.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Dota 2: Klim Sani4 vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner': YES=99.90%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals?': YES=2.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'LoL: Deer Gaming vs DMG Esports (BO3) - NLC Playoffs': YES=73.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Marino vs Fiona Ferro': YES=39.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?': YES=9.70%
ANTHROPICmarket:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?': YES=10.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-24Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?': YES=23.20%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=7.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?': YES=37.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 24?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Butterfly (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage': YES=84.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-24Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?': YES=76.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-24Will Fulham FC win on 2026-08-24?
Polymarket top market 'Will Fulham FC win on 2026-08-24?': YES=24.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-24Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?': YES=8.70%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-24Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?': YES=42.10%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-242026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Polymarket top market '2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House': YES=12.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-24Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
Polymarket top market 'Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage': YES=47.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?': YES=3.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=32.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-24Augsburg: Andrej Nedic vs Juan Estevez
Polymarket top market 'Augsburg: Andrej Nedic vs Juan Estevez': YES=90.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?': YES=74.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-24Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?': YES=23.70%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Roehampton 2: Inaki Montes-De La Torre vs Oskari Paldanius': YES=54.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=21.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide': YES=47.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Málaga CF vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: O/U 2.5': YES=41.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-24Will AS Roma win on 2026-08-24?
Polymarket top market 'Will AS Roma win on 2026-08-24?': YES=57.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=9.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-24Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?': YES=17.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?': YES=81.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=5.00%
market:polymarket