markets
Polymarket/Manifold/KalshiExtracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt
Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.
Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.
Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data
Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=50.11%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on 'Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?': YES=9.39%
NVDAmarket:manifoldManifold consensus on '📈 Will Nvidia report Q2 FY2027 revenue above $92 billion?': YES=92.00%
NVDAmarket:manifoldPolymarket top market 'Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-24Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-08-23?
Polymarket top market 'Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-08-23?': YES=1.90%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-24Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August?': YES=7.30%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?': YES=1.40%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-24Will Málaga CF win on 2026-08-24?
Polymarket top market 'Will Málaga CF win on 2026-08-24?': YES=40.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?': YES=12.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=69.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Porto win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-24Washington Mystics vs. Portland Fire
Polymarket top market 'Washington Mystics vs. Portland Fire': YES=18.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-24Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5)': YES=51.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-24Spread: Indiana Fever (-2.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Indiana Fever (-2.5)': YES=63.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-24Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-08-23?
Polymarket top market 'Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-08-23?': YES=15.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-24Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-13.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-13.5)': YES=23.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Aston Villa win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=0.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 24?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 24?': YES=99.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=22.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?': YES=72.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-24Spread: Indiana Fever (-3.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Indiana Fever (-3.5)': YES=64.00%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-24Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?': YES=39.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?': YES=98.60%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Sporting CP win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.70%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 4.5': YES=0.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?': YES=0.40%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Dutch Grand Prix?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-24Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?': YES=63.50%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?': YES=10.10%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5': YES=10.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?': YES=33.00%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Como win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will VfB Stuttgart win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Will Real Betis win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5': YES=23.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-24Will Santos FC win on 2026-08-23?
Polymarket top market 'Will Santos FC win on 2026-08-23?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarketPolymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?': YES=32.00%
market:polymarket- 2026-08-24Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?': YES=1.70%
market:polymarket - 2026-08-24Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket