markets

Polymarket/Manifold/Kalshi

3,074 events on 2026-08-25role: thematic30d fetch windowcadence: contextaccess: keyless

Extracts: question, probability (quote) · metadata or bounded excerpt

Retention: D1 event history with canonical source link and deduplication metadata.

Access basis: Public endpoint; no project credential required.

Last ingested: 2026-08-27 · run status: success with data

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2026-08-25Will China buy the H200 from NVIDIA
Manifold consensus on 'Will China buy the H200 from NVIDIA': YES=35.19%
NVDAmarket:manifold
2026-08-25Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028
Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=51.04%
NVDAmarket:manifold
2026-08-25Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?
Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=63.78%
NVDAmarket:manifold
2026-08-25Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?
Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=5.49%
NVDAmarket:manifold
2026-08-25📈 Will Nvidia report Q2 FY2027 revenue above $92 billion?
Manifold consensus on '📈 Will Nvidia report Q2 FY2027 revenue above $92 billion?': YES=89.94%
NVDAmarket:manifold
2026-08-25Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 25?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 25?': YES=17.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Rio Noguchi
Polymarket top market 'US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Rio Noguchi': YES=72.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Brentford win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
Polymarket top market 'Will Brentford win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?': YES=52.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Fed rate hike in 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=57.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 25?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 25?': YES=95.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
Polymarket top market 'Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)': YES=3.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?': YES=11.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?': YES=1.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5
Polymarket top market 'Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5': YES=29.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals
Polymarket top market 'LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals': YES=31.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Saints vs. Cowboys
Polymarket top market 'Saints vs. Cowboys': YES=45.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=35.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?': YES=13.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?': YES=3.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26?
Polymarket top market 'Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26?': YES=75.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?': YES=92.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Polymarket top market 'China x Philippines military clash before 2027?': YES=32.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?': YES=6.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?': YES=20.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?': YES=0.60%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
Polymarket top market 'Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?': YES=8.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?
Polymarket top market 'US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?': YES=82.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=42.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Play-In
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Play-In': YES=35.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?': YES=0.50%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5
Polymarket top market 'Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5': YES=7.40%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
Polymarket top market 'LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs': YES=70.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 25?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 25?': YES=99.80%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Polymarket top market 'Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=1.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?': YES=8.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Polymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=62.80%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on August 25?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on August 25?': YES=0.20%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August?': YES=76.70%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?': YES=10.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 25?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 25?': YES=99.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August?': YES=0.30%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?': YES=28.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Polymarket top market 'Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=37.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=32.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in August?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in August?': YES=2.10%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?': YES=81.00%
market:polymarket
2026-08-25Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 25?
Polymarket top market 'Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 25?': YES=99.90%
market:polymarket