markets

Manifold consensus on 'Will it be revealed strategic AI chips Trump has allowed the UAE to buy have strategically benefited China's AI program?': YES=22.94%

Manifold consensus on 'Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?': YES=18.07%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?': YES=19.00%

Manifold consensus on 'NVIDIAs datacenter revenue and BigTech AI capex doubles by Q4 2026': YES=27.76%

Manifold consensus on '3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]': YES=85.99%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Intel manufacture NVIDIA chips by the end of 2026?': YES=23.19%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Jensen Huang cease to be CEO of Nvidia before the end of 2026?': YES=9.84%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Cerebras be a serious NVIDIA competitor?': YES=3.71%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?': YES=41.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia shares to hit new all-time-high in 2026?': YES=96.96%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?': YES=69.87%

Manifold consensus on '[ACX 2026] Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?': YES=6.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?': YES=15.34%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY?': YES=39.80%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA announce that "Vera Rubin" GPUs have begun shipping to customers by the end of Q2 2026?': YES=7.04%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia H100 compute prices above 3.50 on 11/6 at 12:00pm EST?': YES=3.48%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia close the day in Green today? (March 16)': YES=54.88%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia (NVDA) close at or above $250 by September 30, 2026?': YES=34.32%

Manifold consensus on 'Will China buy the H200 from NVIDIA': YES=29.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close higher on August 31?': YES=58.39%

Manifold consensus on '📈 Will Nvidia report Q2 FY2027 revenue above $92 billion?': YES=92.00%

Manifold consensus on 'Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028': YES=51.55%

Manifold consensus on 'Will Nvidia NVDA stock drop more than 50% from its peak at any point by the end of 2026?': YES=5.49%

Manifold consensus on 'Before 2028, will the US Federal Government have paid more than $5B to NVIDIA under the Defense Production Act?': YES=9.39%

Polymarket top market 'Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?': YES=8.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?': YES=66.80%

Polymarket top market 'Fed rate hike in 2026?': YES=56.00%

Polymarket top market 'US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?': YES=75.00%

Polymarket top market 'LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals': YES=30.00%

Polymarket top market 'US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer': YES=3.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?': YES=1.00%

Polymarket top market 'Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins': YES=54.00%

Polymarket top market 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?': YES=15.00%

Polymarket top market 'Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx': YES=33.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?': YES=0.40%

Polymarket top market 'Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-08-24?': YES=0.50%

Polymarket top market 'Will AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?': YES=4.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?': YES=0.20%

Polymarket top market 'Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-08-24?': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Monterrey Open: Clara Tauson vs Renata Zarazua': YES=73.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?': YES=5.70%

Polymarket top market 'Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-08-24?': YES=0.30%

Polymarket top market 'Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?': YES=17.80%

Polymarket top market 'Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score': YES=99.90%

Polymarket top market 'Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?': YES=14.20%

Polymarket top market 'Kingston 2: Aidan Mayo vs Keshav Chopra': YES=3.00%

Polymarket top market 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?': YES=6.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?': YES=1.40%

Polymarket top market 'Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants': YES=60.00%

Polymarket top market 'Will Hallescher FC win on 2026-08-24?': YES=5.00%