Rupee opens 6 paise higher at 95.59 against US dollar

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The Indian rupee opened 6 paise higher at 95.59 against the US dollar on Thursday, 30 July, following the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision, although volatility in crude oil prices remained a key risk factor.
The domestic currency has strengthened for the fourth consecutive session, gaining more than 1% during the period, with traders attributing the recovery largely to continued support from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), according to a Reuters report.
As anticipated, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75%. However, Chair Kevin Warsh emphasised that the fight against inflation is still ongoing. Officials are dedicated to restoring inflation to the Fed's 2% goal and are not prepared to declare success at this point.
Market experts said the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% was largely in line with expectations, but Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments indicated that the central bank remains cautious on inflation and is not ready to declare victory yet.
Analysts noted that the Fed continues to focus on bringing inflation back towards its 2% target, while keeping the option of further tightening open if economic data, particularly inflation and labour market indicators, remain stronger than expected.
The US 10-year Treasury yield holding near 4.70% also reflected persistent inflation concerns, which could support dollar demand and reduce the relative attractiveness of emerging markets like India, experts said.
Despite these global headwinds and a rebound in Brent crude prices towards $89 per barrel, the rupee strengthened to 95.49 before closing at 95.6475 against the US dollar. Currency analysts attributed the rupee’s recent resilience largely to sustained intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which has stepped in to curb excessive volatility and prevent sharp currency movements.
However, experts cautioned that while RBI intervention can help manage short-term fluctuations, the rupee’s broader direction will continue to depend on factors such as crude oil prices, global dollar strength, and geopolitical developments.
According to Amit Pabari, MD, Research Team, CR Forex Advisors, the 95.50-95.60 zone remains a crucial support area for USDINR. While recent rupee strength has been aided by RBI intervention, the broader backdrop of elevated crude oil prices, persistent geopolitical tensions, and a Fed that continues to keep the door open for further tightening remains supportive for the dollar. As long as this support zone holds, we continue to expect USDINR to move towards the 96.80-97.00 zone.
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