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So, should investors spend less time chasing the next big winner and more time building portfolios that can withstand market crashes, long periods of underperformance and the unexpected disruptions of real life? In this edition of ETMarkets Smart Talk, we speak to Sahil Kapoor, Executive Director, Investment Strategist and Head of Product at DSP Mutual Fund, about the hidden risks investors often ignore—from path risk and unrealistic SIP expectations to FOMO, diversification, valuation and the dangers of confusing a great story with a great investment. Kapoor also explains why successful long-term investing can feel unsuccessful for surprisingly long periods, why buying every dip is not always the answer, and why the real goal may not be to predict the next multibagger—but to build a portfolio capable of surviving the fall. Edited excerpts: Q) The report talks about “hidden risks”—risks that investors ignore simply because they haven't materialised yet. What are Indian retail investors most complacent about today? A) Probably path risk. Investors increasingly assume that a long holding period, an SIP or a good fund will automatically produce a good outcome. DSP Netra's point is that time, sequence, behaviour, liquidity needs and entry price can materially alter the experience even when the underlying asset eventually does well. When things are going great, investors forget to ask the most important question before buying- how much? Q) Markets have trained an entire generation to believe that every correction is a buying opportunity. Could that belief itself become the next big hidden risk? A) Yes, if it becomes mechanical. A correction improves price but does not automatically create value. History contains markets that remained unrewarding for very long periods and individual stocks that never recovered. The distinction is between buying a decline and buying with a margin of safety. Buying the dip is the right cue, but it can't be applied to narrow themes and ideas. It is a broad concept that relies on staying invested over a long period with broad diversification. Read more: ETMarkets Smart Talk | India could start looking attractive on FY28 earnings in six months: Nitin Raheja, Julius Baer India Q) The ₹10,000 SIP dream: Are investors being shown an unrealistic version of wealth creation? A) The mathematics is real; the starting assumption can be unrealistic. Using per-capita income as a consistent affordability yardstick, ₹10,000 today is equivalent to only about ₹1,536 twenty years ago. An income-adjusted SIP produces a much smaller corpus than assuming ₹10,000 was equally affordable throughout. As investors, we need to ask questions and not believe in numbers that are thrown at us. An absolute number is a storytelling anchor. There is no one hat that can fit all heads. Q) Can an investor have the right mutual fund, the right SIP strategy and still end up with disappointing returns because life gets in the way? A) Absolutely. The portfolio does not exist independently of the investor's life. Job losses, emergencies or cash-flow stress can force SIP stoppages or withdrawals precisely during market declines, when interrupting compounding can hurt the most. Excel-sheet extrapolation is not how life unfolds. Life is fuzzy and random. We need to keep ample margins for the unknown. Q) SIPs have become almost synonymous with guaranteed long-term wealth creation. But if 81% of historical 10-year SIPs saw negative returns at some point, are investors prepared for what a successful SIP journey actually feels like? A) That is the distinction between the destination and the journey. In our historical study, 99% of the 10-year SIPs eventually beat debt, yet 81% went negative at some point and 97% temporarily underperformed debt. Successful long-term investing can feel unsuccessful for surprisingly long stretches. One way to participate is not to worry about short-period movements. An SIP is not like watching paint dry; it is about not watching at all. Q) Silver delivered spectacular returns, but the report suggests much of the late money is underwater. Is FOMO less about buying the wrong asset and more about buying the right asset after most of the returns are already gone? A) Exactly. Silver returned about 98%, while the money-weighted investor return was only about 18%. The largest monthly ETF inflow, roughly ₹11,761 crore, arrived around the price peak. FOMO can turn a good asset into a poor investor experience simply through timing, especially when that timing is based on recent high returns and the expectation that we may miss the bus. Only those who aren't trying to catch the bus can avoid the feeling of missing out. Q) The best-performing fund and the average investor's experience in that fund can be completely different. Why do investors consistently arrive after the returns and leave before the recovery? A) Because performance becomes easiest to believe only after it has happened. Kinetics Internet Fund returned 196% in 1998 and 216% in 1999, after which money flooded in; its largest monthly redemption came in December 2002, just before a 40.1% return in 2003. We tend to buy confidence and sell discomfort. At the peak, the numbers and statistical evidence are so clear and promising that it is hard to argue against them. At these extremes, judgement and 'reversion to mean' are thrown out and sentiment takes over. Q) Japan, China and even the US have seen prolonged periods of disappointing market returns. What is the biggest macro lesson Indian investors should take from these examples? A) There is no contractual definition of “long term.” Economic progress and equity returns can diverge for years because starting valuations and market regimes matter. We cannot choose the environment in which our investing life begins or ends, so diversification and the price we pay remain important. Read more: ETMarkets Smart Talk | Don't dismiss 7.8% GDP growth as a statistical upgrade; the acceleration is real: Garima Kapoor Q) At what point does diversification become “di-worse-fication”—where investors own so many products that they lose track of what they actually own? A) When another fund adds labels rather than genuinely different exposures. In our exercise, adding other categories to an existing Flexi Cap portfolio left only roughly 25–36% different exposure in the physical-equity books in some cases. Count underlying businesses and risk drivers, not fund names. Better still, try to diversify across assets. Q) If tomorrow's multibaggers are obvious only in hindsight, should retail investors stop chasing the next big winner and instead focus on creating a strong portfolio which can survive the fall? A) That is the more robust approach. Globally, just 2.39% of firms accounted for all $75.7 trillion of net wealth creation, while in India only 24.2% of stocks beat the value-weighted market in the study. Since identifying those extreme winners in advance is difficult, diversification and avoiding permanent loss matter enormously. Diversification is an expression of the fact that we cannot know it all. It is an antidote to errors. Q) Investors love booking profits. But could frequent profit-taking actually be one of the biggest enemies of compounding? A) Yes, when activity creates unnecessary taxes, costs and mistiming. Netra's illustration shows how repeatedly realizing gains shrinks the capital base available to compound; layering even small annual frictions makes the long-term gap very large. The lesson is not “never sell,” but do not confuse activity with value addition. Q) Every bull market creates powerful stories—new economy, technology, disruption, turnaround, India growth. How do investors distinguish between a great story and a great investment? A) A story describes what could happen; an investment requires evidence that the economics justify the price being paid. Look for demonstrated cash flows, balance-sheet strength, returns on capital and a margin of safety. History is full of popular companies that suffered very large drawdowns despite once-compelling narratives. Anything that needs many things to go right can fall apart with just one thing going wrong. Therefore, always make sure that if things do not turn out as expected, your losses are acceptable to you. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times) (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price
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