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Morgan Chittum here. More bad news in the IPO market this week. On Monday, Chinese manufacturer Kepuni Holdings withdrew plans for a Nasdaq listing that had been expected to raise $15 million. A day later, Gravitics Holdings slashed its deal size by a whopping 60% ahead of the space-system developer’s $50 million IPO. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Elice Group plunged 32% on its first day of trading due to jitters about AI-related stocks. According to Dealogic data, it was the country’s worst-ever debut for a company that raised more than $100 million. Sure, these are small deals in the grand scheme of 2026. SpaceX had a record-breaking $75 billion public offering in June. But they add to a string of recent disappointments. (Let’s not forget when Oura, the smart-ring maker behind one of the season’s most anticipated IPOs, shelved plans just hours before pricing shares in September.) The problem, according to Jay Ritter, director of the University of Florida’s IPO Initiative, has come down to valuations. “Some of those companies have pulled their IPOs, rather than accepting a less optimistic valuation than they had hoped to get,” Ritter, known as “Mr. IPO,” told me. “You’re just asking too much. It’s not that you’ve got a bad business model. It’s a question of price.” So, what’s it going to take to reignite the IPO market in 2026? After all, the first six months of the year were great in terms of deal proceeds at roughly $137 billion, partly thanks to SpaceX. Matt Kennedy, a senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, told me that a fruitful public debut from Anthropic could do the trick. “There’s no question, a successful Anthropic IPO would be a huge win for the rest of the market,” Kennedy said, pointing to the deal’s potentially landmark size. A long-time Anthropic investor, who asked not to be named, told Fortune’s Shawn Tully that he expects shares to be priced at roughly $1.8 trillion. Although it’s below the Claude creator’s $2 trillion target, the investor predicts a post-IPO trading value of up to $2.4 trillion. That tops SpaceX’s $2.1 trillion market cap at the end of its first trading day. Kennedy added, “When investors make money with IPOs, they begin to put that money back into work on future deals.” But Anthropic’s IPO is still up in the air. The company hasn’t said when it will file, and it does face a number of risk factors. On Tuesday, the Wall Street Journal reported a new draft prospectus where the AI giant disclosed an $80.7 billion net loss for the first six months of the year. There was still breakneck revenue growth for Anthropic. The company garnered revenue of roughly $16.3 billion for the first half of 2026, much higher than $1.1 billion during the year-ago period. Another wrinkle: Time is of the essence. The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg both previously reported that Anthropic is preparing for a potential November IPO. With that timeline in mind, Renaissance Capital’s Kennedy says a filing could come out as soon as Friday. But any delay would leave less room for a 2026 debut—and for other companies to follow suit—before the end of the year. With midterm elections and the holiday season approaching, more prospective issuers could opt to wait until early 2027. That would push back a potential rebound in deals but not necessarily derail it. After all, Kennedy said the benefits of a successful Anthropic listing could extend well into next year. “With such a large deal, I think this has legs,” he said. “It can help 2027 activity.” See you tomorrow, Morgan Chittum X: @morgan_chittum Email: morgan.chittum@fortune.com Submit a deal for the Term Sheet newsletter here. Joey Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter. VENTURE CAPITAL - Arda Industries, a San Francisco-based developer of AI software for manufacturing engineering, raised $160 million in Series A funding at a $1.5 billion valuation. Altimeter, Accel, and Khosla Ventures led the round and were joined by XYZ Venture Capital, 8VC, SVAngel, and Felicis. - Eka Robotics, a Cambridge, Mass.-based developer of general-purpose robots and AI models for dexterous manipulation, raised $150 million in Series A funding. Andreessen Horowitz and F-Prime led the round and were joined by MFV Capital, Bison Ventures, and others. - Daytona, a San Francisco-based provider of cloud infrastructure for AI agents, raised $60 million in Series B funding. FirstMark led the round and was joined by Alumni Ventures, Evergreen Fund, Okta Ventures, Qualcomm Ventures, Samsung Next, Torch Capital, and existing investors. - Baba, a New York-based provider of AI-powered care coordination and patient advocacy services for Medicare and Medicaid patients, raised $40 million in Series A funding. FirstMark Capital led the round and was joined by CVS Health Ventures, Valtrius, and others. - Tolan, a San Francisco-based developer of an AI companion app, raised $30 million in funding from Union Square Ventures, Khosla Ventures, and Homebrew. - Asymptote Labs, a New York-based developer of monitoring and security software for enterprise AI agents, raised $5.5 million in seed funding. Tower Research Ventures led the round and was joined by Lytical Ventures, 1984 Ventures, South Park Commons, and angel investors. - Pennant, a New York-based developer of AI-powered corporate governance and proxy voting software, raised $5 million in seed funding. Urban Innovation Fund led the round and was joined by Y Combinator and angel investors. - ArtMaster, a Prague-based developer of AI-powered creative skills training apps, raised $2.4 million in seed funding from Factorial Capital, Reflex Capital, Moises, Nir Zicherman, Grant Davis, Eliska Vorel, and existing investors. - Vinyl Health, a Marlton, N.J.-based developer of an AI-powered personal health assistant that helps patients record, understand, and share their health information, raised $2 million in seed funding led by HealthX Ventures. PRIVATE EQUITY - NRG Controls, a portfolio company of Fort Point Capital, acquired Integrated Systems, a Douglasville, Ga.-based provider of building automation and commercial HVAC control systems. Financial terms weren’t disclosed. - Wateralia, a portfolio company of Ambienta, acquired CSA, a Salsomaggiore Terme, Italy-based manufacturer of control valves for water networks. Financial terms weren’t disclosed. EXITS - Grupa Specjał signed a term sheet to acquire Natura, a Łódź, Poland-based drugstore chain, from Mutares. Financial terms weren’t disclosed. IPOs - Lycia Therapeutics, a South San Francisco-based biotechnology company developing treatments for autoimmune, inflammatory, and allergic diseases, plans to raise up to $264.6 million in an offering of 14.7 million shares priced between $16 and $18. The company posted $4 million in sales for the year ended June 30. Versant Ventures, Venrock Healthcare Capital Partners, Redmile Biopharma Investments, RTW Investments, Janus Henderson Biotech Innovation Master Fund, and Blue Owl back the company. FUNDS + FUNDS OF FUNDS - Bison Ventures, a San Francisco-based venture capital firm, raised $160 million for its second fund focused on sectors including robotics, energy, biology, manufacturing, and compute infrastructure. PEOPLE - Weatherford Capital, a Tampa, Fla.-based private investment firm, hired Michael Pantilione as a partner in its flagship strategy. Previously, he was with LLR Partners.
document fetched 2026-10-23 22:20 · canonical https://fortune.com/2026/10/21/is-anthropic-ipo-markets-last-hope-2026