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The shock reelection in Brazil of leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, which polls — and Wall Street prognosticators — had pegged as unlikely, has left markets in disarray. An ETF tracking Brazilian stocks in New York was down 26% pre-market, while a Tokyo-based equivalent dropped 15%. “It’s going to be a tough day. The market will reprice everything,” an analyst told Bloomberg. “Everyone was caught by surprise.” Investors had largely bet on a win by right-wing opponent Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro, who had promised to shore up the country’s public finances — under Lula, who has championed welfare and state-led investment, Brazil’s public debt has gone up 10 percentage points to more than 82% of GDP, and the country faces huge fiscal challenges and cooling economic growth. Bolsonaro has already challenged the results, prolonging the political flux and adding fresh pressure to the currency.
document fetched 2026-10-27 02:56 · canonical https://semafor.com/article/10/26/2026/markets-brace-for-uncertainty-after-lula-win-in-brazil