Netflix has dipped its toe into theatrical. Is it ready to jump in?

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Netflix is making itself clear: It's a streaming-first business.
During the company's third-quarter earnings call on Tuesday, co-CEO Ted Sarandos reiterated the streaming giant's long-held stance that its content, which it spent $20 billion on last year, is meant for its subscribers and, therefore, should be delivered to customers on its streaming platform as quickly as possible.
Yet, the company is set to have 30 theatrical releases in 2027, on par with what it brought to cinemas in 2026. And while not all of these features are expected to have wide releases or long runs in theaters, Netflix is testing the waters with projects like Greta Gerwig's "Narnia: The Magician's Nephew," which will have a wide release and a 49-day exclusive theatrical window when it hits cinemas in February.
The company seems poised to carve a new path forward as it grapples with viewership stagnation and a stock slump of roughly 30% since January.
How its theatrical ambitions fit into a streaming-first strategy remains a question mark.
"Theatrical releases are a net positive for reach and streaming demand," Alicia Reese, analyst at Wedbush, wrote in a note Wednesday. "Netflix's more amenable attitude toward exclusive theatrical windows will not only facilitate better relationships with talent, but also add a new revenue stream and build interest in its streaming service. This follows the pattern we have seen with the major studios' streaming platforms over the past several years: theatrical releases don't cannibalize the streaming window, as Netflix fears."
Ahead of its Tuesday earnings report, Netflix restructured its C-suite, bringing in former Disney executive Peter Rice to take over as the company's chief content officer, ousting 10-year veteran Bela Bajaria.
Netflix also dismissed Dan Lin, the company's head of film, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal changes. That came just days after it laid off roughly 1,000 employees including Lin's right hand Doug Belgrad as well as Sheroum Kim, the director of independent film, according to various media reports. It's unclear who Netflix will tap to take over Lin's position.
The company aims to restore quality to the brand and utilize Rice's expertise in talent relations to lure big names in an increasingly competitive market.
Still, Netflix executives seemed to downplay the change in leadership during the company's earnings call.
"Our business and our business flywheel are working," Sarandos told investors during the company's earnings call. "There is no need for a fundamental shift in the strategy. We do need better execution in the U.S. ... It's just not growing as fast as it could or as fast as we'd like."
Sarandos said the streamer had "some really solid doubles and triples this year," but suggested the company needs more "home runs."
In an emblematic moment during Tuesday's call, Sarandos highlighted a deal with Disney, struck in October, to bring the Ice Age films and others to the streaming service, and gave a nod to that company's CEO, Josh D'Amaro.
"We already are seeing some of those benefits from the Ice Age movies. All five of them hit our top 10. That's really exciting," the Netflix co-CEO said. "And by the way, yes, Netflix just plugged a Disney movie on our earnings call. You're welcome, Josh."
Netflix's content strategy
In a bid to capture consumer attention and broaden its subscriber funnel, Netflix has spent years diversifying its offerings to include video games, live sports and quick-turn documentaries on buzzy cultural moments.
But more recently, it's lacked some of the water-cooler-type hits like "Stranger Things," "Bridgerton" and "Squid Game" that previously boosted subscriptions and viewership numbers.
"We know there's some investor concern about our view hours growth," Netflix said in its shareholder letter Tuesday. "Engagement — which encompasses quantity, quality and variety of viewing — remains healthy."
And yet with Netflix stating plainly that it needs new avenues for growth — and against the backdrop of a foiled deal to buy the Warner Bros. film studio — investors and onlookers are once again looking at the theatrical business.
"I think there's a place for the theatrical for Netflix," Matthew Condon, equity research analyst at Citizens, told CNBC. "Especially, as the competition for time and attention just continues to increase."
"If they really want to build stickier fan bases around some of their [intellectual property], I think theatrical could be a good avenue for them to do that," Condon said. "That's one area that Netflix has historically not been all that strong in, is building like really, really strong IP. And I think building fan bases around theatrical releases and things of that nature can help with that and then also can help them get top tier talent."
Netflix is no stranger to luring in big Hollywood directors. It's worked with the likes of Rian Johnson, Martin Scorsese, Alfonso Cuarón, Bong Joon Ho, Spike Lee and Guillermo del Toro. However, none of these directors' Netflix films received a wide theatrical release or a long run in theaters.
Sarandos admitted earlier this month that the company has lost talent because it would not guarantee wide theatrical releases.
Most notably, the creators and lead producer behind its hit "Stranger Things" have all jumped ship in the last year. Matt and Ross Duffer signed a four-year exclusive deal with Skydance — the new home of the same Warner Bros. film studio that Netflix nearly bought — while Shawn Levy joined the ranks of Disney to direct "Star Wars: Starfighter."
Going to the movies
Sarandos said Tuesday the company's strategy is about "specialty theatrical releasing," in which each film gets its own bespoke release. In some cases, Netflix plays the film in theaters for the minimum requirement to be eligible for awards. Others appear for weekend stints as one-off events, like in the case of its "KPop Demon Hunters" smash that ran in theaters for just two days.
Gerwig's "Narnia" adaptation is among those chosen few to get longer theatrical runs and a wider reach, along with an animated film called "Charlie vs. the Chocolate Factory."
"Both films have big global IP and big global fandom, so we're very excited about how they'll play out next year," Sarandos said.
In another sign of its evolution into theaters, Netflix has said it will report box office results for films that have longer theatrical windows. Those readouts are standard for major studios, regardless of release or windowing, but the move marks a new level of disclosure for the streamer.
Incoming content head Rice could be the missing piece for Netflix in a new theatrical model.
The executive has a wealth of experience in television and film. Since 2023 he has produced films like "Saturday Night" and "28 Years Later." He's currently developing a movie adaptation of the video game "Elden Ring."
But right now, Netflix doesn't have the infrastructure for a full theatrical commitment.
"Going into theatrical isn't quite as easy as I think sometimes folks make it sound," Steven Cahall, stock analyst at Wells Fargo, told CNBC. "You have to negotiate with movie theaters, and find spots for your films."
Cahall noted that sending the occasional film to theaters, especially with a limited release, "maybe isn't so hard, but there is a muscle of theatrical distribution ... You need a team of people, and you need a pipeline of content that's intended for theatrical release, and you need a marketing department around it."
That's where buying Warner Bros. Discovery's studio assets would have come in. In the absence of that acquisition, it's not clear how, or how quickly, Netflix can bulk up its own operations.
Plus, it's previously balked at the marketing costs that come with bringing films to the cinema, which can total hundreds of millions of dollars per film. Despite a hefty content budget, Netflix has long prioritized quantity and seemingly endless choice for its subscribers over individual big-budget projects.
A shift to a multi-pronged strategy that feeds both streaming and cinemas would require Netflix to more closely mimic the companies it disrupted in the first place.
"So that becomes more of an existential question for Netflix: Is it time to become a media conglomerate rather than being a pure play streaming company?" Wells Fargo's Cahall said. "'Do we want to become a media conglomerate?'"

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