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Alexis’s view The longstanding debate over whether African nations should view gas as a “transition fuel” in the shift to renewable energy has gone quiet. Western institutions in recent years refused to invest in gas infrastructure, arguing countries would be locked into fossil fuel dependence. Many African policymakers responded that advanced economies built their wealth on coal and oil, adding their continent accounts for less than 4% of global carbon emissions. But the energy shock caused by the Iran war has silenced the debate. Put simply, the world needs gas to generate electricity and power heavy industry. The Gulf’s state-owned companies are looking for stakes in gas projects after being targeted in strikes, said Andrew Farrand, director of Middle East and North Africa at consultancy Horizon Engage. “We’re now in a world where producers have to diversify,” he said. Efforts by European nations to reduce their dependence on Russian gas were already underway. And the Trump administration has pushed the World Bank to end its prohibition on financing upstream gas projects. Nigeria, which has the world’s ninth-largest proven reserves of natural gas, stands out as a major beneficiary. Rising demand for its liquefied natural gas has been accompanied by a flurry of investment announcements, including for discoveries that lay moribund for decades. Timi Soleye, president of Lagos-headquartered energy company CRYO Gas & Power, said he has fielded a sudden wave of inquiries from investors in recent months because the risk calculus for large gas projects in Nigeria has “changed substantially.” The Gulf of Guinea, which carries gas from Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea, has no choke points, so blockading it would take “a full navy,” Soleye said. Mozambique and Senegal are among the countries set to benefit from efforts to diversify global gas production. The same is true of Tanzania, which this week announced its first major natural gas discovery in more than a decade and is planning a $42 billion LNG project, one of East Africa’s largest proposed energy developments. A new debate is taking shape. African policymakers will have to balance the benefits of exporting gas against retaining some for electricity generation. Both approaches require costly infrastructure, but while exports could quickly fill government coffers, using gas to fuel industrialization has the potential to deliver a larger long-term payoff. Notable - Tanzania made its first major natural gas discovery in more than a decade, its energy minister said, as the country advances plans for a $42 billion LNG project, one of East Africa’s largest proposed energy developments.
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