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This is CNBC's Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox. Hello, this is Leonie Kidd with today's edition of Morning Squawk. Investors will assess two major market forces today: the Fed decision and another round of tech earnings. Inflation is the common denominator, with policymakers citing the AI-driven demand boom as pushing up prices alongside energy. For now, futures are holding steady, while Fed officials are expected to also hold steady on rates. Happening now: Futures in holding mode It looks set to be a cautious open to trading today as investors stay on the sidelines ahead of a series of big market moments this afternoon. The Federal Reserve will announce its decision at 2pm ET, with policymakers all but certain to keep rates unchanged. - Expert view: CNBC's Steve Liesman will be following closely how Chairman Kevin Warsh faces a dilemma that pits his "regime change" monetary policy principles against his job to manage the committee. - The analyst view: "It ought to be possible for Warsh – who is alert to market risks even though he professes not to like mollycoddling investors – to show a calming steady hand," said Krishna Guha from Evercore ISI in a recent note. "But there is material execution risk." - Hot take: Straight after the press conference, CNBC's "Closing Bell" will speak with bond veteran Jeffrey Gundlach to get his instant reaction. In a CNBC exclusive, we will also hear the fiscal view from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who joins CNBC's Brian Sullivan to discuss the economy, the midterms and more. Catch that interview at 4pm ET. - Last time: When Secretary Bessent spoke to CNBC last month, he warned that the Trump administration will not be giving AI a "liability shield." It's a positive handover from Asia, with the South Korean index spiking overnight following a solid set of numbers from market heavyweight SK Hynix. Third-quarter operating profit soared past expectations, and the chipmaker returned $25 billion to shareholders. - Why it matters: This could provide another boost for chip stocks, like Micron. SK Hynix has grown to have a huge influence on the South Korean index, as well as provide an early indication of AI trading sentiment for the day ahead. - Sector dynamics: The chip stocks drove the rally on Wall Street on Tuesday, after an announcement from Broadcom that a group of banks would provide $63 billion in financing to buy the company's chips and networking solutions to be leased to Anthropic. Big movers: Another AI pulse check The main earnings act will come after the bell today, with Alphabet and Microsoft both due to report. - The backdrop: Fears over artificial intelligence debt have eased after a bout of volatility. But more tests for AI debt are coming, with those key earnings alongside in Investor Day for Oracle later on Wednesday. Ahead of that, there have been a slew of big releases from Europe's biggest banks, here's the recap: Swiss banking giant UBS has logged a near 30% jump in pretax profit for the quarter. - The CEO's take: Sergio Ermotti told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" that he is seeing strong inflows across the bank's business units. Deutsche Bank has reported its third consecutive quarter of record profits, while assets under management have swelled to $2.2 trillion for the German lender. - The CFO's take: Raja Akram spoke to CNBC's Annette Weisbach in Frankfurt about staying competitive with its American peers. Robinhood shares sank in late trading after the retail trading platform missed earnings expectations as the slump in crypto weighed on profit. The stock is down almost 40% from its highs of last October. - Coming up: "Squawk on the Street" will speak to CEO Vlad Tenev in the 10am ET hour. IPO playbook: A jump for Jio Shares in Meta- and Google-backed firm Jio Platforms have spiked over 20% during the first day of trading in India. It marks the country's largest-ever IPO, raising $3.2 billion. - Why it matters: Nomura gave Jio Platforms a buy rating, setting a target price of 1,340 rupees, implying an upside of 19.7% to its IPO price. The brokerage said in a report that Jio's capex cycle is largely over and there is expected to be a sharp improvement in the company's free cash flow. Developing: Challenges in Brazil and Israel Two key elections are creating geopolitical uncertainty. Following the second round of voting in Brazil, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has fled to the U.S. He was granted a visa to travel to America after failing to comply with the Brazilian Supreme Court's order to hand over his passport. - Why it matters: This will strain relations with President Lula after President Trump said he believed the elections could have been "rigged." Meanwhile, the election in Israel appears to have no clear winner after Tuesday's vote. According to exit polls, neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor challenger Gadi Eisenkot appear close to the numbers needed to form a governing coalition. The official results are due to be published on November 4. And Finally... Trump jokes $5,000 would buy 'a hamburger and maybe a small dessert' at Mar-a-Lago President Donald Trump joked that the $5,000 payments he's promised U.S. adults would buy little more than "a hamburger and maybe a small dessert" at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida, a week before midterm elections dominated by voters' concerns over affordability. Trump has pledged $5,000 to every adult citizen if Republicans win both the House and Senate, specifying the money must be spent in the U.S. "Go to Florida, go to any one of our great places. You can even come to Mar-a-Lago," Trump said at a rally in Texas on Tuesday. "The problem is that for $5,000, the most you'll be able to buy is a hamburger and maybe a small dessert." — CNBC's Steve Liesman, Jeff Cox, Jenny Lee, Davis Giangiulio, Hugh Leask, Anniek Bao and Tanaya Macheel contributed to this report. John Melloy edited this edition.
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