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TEL AVIV, Israel — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition is running nearly even with Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc in Tuesday's historic election — but both are short of a 61-seat majority, according to Israeli exit polls. Why it matters: Political stalemate is the most likely outcome of the election, with Netanyahu weakened but neither side having a clear path to forming a coalition government. Arab parties are poised to win 18 to 19 seats in what would be an unprecedented electoral achievement. While theoretically Eisenkot's bloc could try to swear in a minority government supported by the two Arab parties, that scenario looks unlikely. The numbers: Eisenkot's bloc emerged with a small lead in early exit polls, but Netanyahu's coalition closed the gap as the night wore on. The exit polls show Netanyahu's bloc with 51-52 seats and Eisenkot's bloc with 49-51 seats. Netanyahu's Likud party is projected to win 27 seats versus 21 seats for Eisenkot's Yashar party. State of play: A close outcome could leave the country in a state of limbo, with Netanyahu likely staying on as a caretaker prime minister at the helm of the executive branch and the opposition led by Eisenkot controlling the Knesset. That scenario could last until new elections are held as early as April. The two sides could try to break the deadlock by forming a unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot. But such a scenario is also improbable considering that none of the opposition parties will agree to sit in a Netanyahu-led government. What they're saying: Eisenkot claimed victory in a speech after midnight Israeli time. He said if Netanyahu was a "decent leader," he would exit the political stage after the public voted for change. During the speech, Eisenkot alluded to the possibility that the prime minister would launch military action before a new government is seated. "Netanyahu: don't dare use Israel's security for your political needs," Eisenkot said. He emphasized that the commanders of the Israel Defense Forces and the heads of the security and intelligence services must remember that Netanyahu is now heading a caretaker government. Eisenkot also said the government he intends to form will be based on three principles: Israel as a Jewish and democratic state; military and national service for all; and the dismantling of Hamas. After 3 a.m. Israeli time, Netanyahu took the stage and also claimed victory. "We are still waiting for the official election results. Likud is the largest party in Israel. The right-wing bloc has a clear, decisive majority among the Zionist public and among the Jewish population as a whole," he said. Netanyahu didn't mention the possibility of a unity government with Eisenkot, but rather called for "a strong Jewish right-wing national government." "We must not endanger Israel by forming a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties," he said, referring to the only option available to Eisenkot to form a government. Netanyahu added that "Iran is weaker than ever and Israel is stronger than ever." As long as the Iranian regime exists, he said, it will try to destroy Israel. "Together with our wonderful friend President Trump, we have the power to eliminate the threat once and for all." Driving the news: The exit poll results came after voters flocked to polling stations throughout the day, with turnout reaching a three-decade high. It was the culmination of a campaign that each side warned would lead to catastrophe if the other side won. Go deeper: Israeli turnout hits three-decade high
document fetched 2026-10-28 02:52 · canonical https://axios.com/2026/10/27/netanyahu-eisenkot-israel-election-exit-polls