New Hampshire emerges as potential Senate battleground

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New Hampshire emerges as potential Senate battleground In today’s issue: ▪ Final major Senate matchup set ▪ GOP midterm convention kicks off ▪ Smithsonian head announces retirement ▪ Countries cut off West Bank settlements New Hampshire is emerging as a key state to watch as the primary season wraps up, with Rep. Chris Pappas clinching the Democratic nod last night to face former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) in the general election in November. By most accounts, Democrats should be in a good position to keep the blue-leaning seat, which will be vacated by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), and strategists say the national mood and President Trump’s record-low approval ratings should help Pappas. However, in a University of New Hampshire (UNH) poll released Aug. 26, Sununu led Pappas 45 percent to 43 percent. Two months earlier, the hypothetical match-up showed Pappas leading, 47 percent to 44 percent. Both results were within the margins of error. Election forecasters Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate New Hampshire as lean Democrat. Pappas’s roughly 32-point margin over progressive Karishma Manzur on Tuesday will bolster Democratic confidence heading into November. Still, as national Democrats set their sights on flipping high-profile Senate seats — including in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas — some are cautioning the party not to sleep on New Hampshire. Democratic strategist James Demers told Morning Report that Sununu’s name carries a lot of weight in New Hampshire — both his brother, Chris Sununu, and father, John H. Sununu, are popular former governors — and the Republican Party is pouring money behind a candidate they think could have a shot at flipping the seat red. “Democrats need to remember that the first thing and the highest priority is to maintain the seats that we already have, and New Hampshire is one of them,” Demers said. “So, I think this should be a winnable seat for Democrats,” he continued. “Donald Trump is polling in the low 30s here, but the Sununu name is big, and the Republican money is big, and so it could be more competitive than people think.” Sununu has also been running as a “throwback candidate,” Saint Anselm College political science professor Christopher Galdieri said, and asking voters to “remember when things weren’t as crazy as they are now.” “I think that’s appealing to a decent segment of the New Hampshire electorate,” Galdieri said. “He’s also benefited from the fact that he is not a Trumpy Republican, but he has the Trump endorsement,” he added. “And so that sort of gives him the best of both worlds heading into the primary.” UNH political science professor Dante Scala is skeptical the race is really as close as polls suggest. “I’m not saying the polls are wrong, but I am saying that I don’t think that’s where we’ll be in a couple months,” he said. “I think there’s a good possibility that John Sununu has had a bit of the afterglow of his brother, who was a very popular figure as governor. I think that could be part of what’s going on in the polls.” Scala also said the latest UNH survey suggests progressives may be holding out on Pappas, not yet willing to commit to backing him in a hypothetical match-up. But Scala said “given the polarization” in today’s era, the idea that progressives “would not vote for Pappas over John Sununu, with the U.S. Senate control of Congress at stake, seems to me unlikely.” Galdieri pointed to the souring national mood under unified Republican control in Washington and Democrats’ recent strong showings in polling and special elections as evidence that a GOP win in New Hampshire is not likely in the cards. “The fact that we’re talking about potential Democratic success in places like Texas and Iowa and Ohio makes me think that New Hampshire is probably not going to be the exception,” Galdieri noted. “That said, I think Sununu is probably the strongest candidate Republicans could have put forward, especially in this environment.” HOUSE RACE In the primary for the seat that Pappas is vacating, health tech entrepreneur Stefany Shaheen, the daughter of the outgoing senator, clinched the Democratic nomination over state Democratic Party Vice Chair Maura Sullivan and several other candidates. The race between Shaheen and Sullivan, a former Obama administration official, became nasty at times as Sullivan went after Shaheen over her “fancy last name” and Shaheen slammed Sullivan over donations from people with ties to Palantir and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. Shaheen will be the favorite to win in the Democratic-leaning district in November. ▪ The Hill: Three takeaways from New Hampshire’s primaries. ▪ The Hill: New Hampshire governor matchup set. Smart Take with Blake Burman Republicans kick off their midterm convention in Dallas, Texas, today. It’s a first ever for the Republican National Committee (RNC) and will feature plenty of Trump, along with his administration’s policies. RNC Chair Joe Gruters told me the convention will be a major part of the Republicans plan to win the midterms. “We’re going to use this, and we’re going to go attack the country with the president. You know, 30 different rallies plus 100 different tele-town halls,” Gruters said. Tuesday, though, provided the backdrop for what voters care about most: prices. We saw new strikes on Iranian tankers as oil also hovers around $100 per barrel, while Canada levied new tariffs on the U.S. Burman hosts “The Hill” weeknights, 6 p.m. EDT/5 p.m. CDT on NewsNation. 3 Things to Know: - Voters are heading to the polls in Rhode Island today to cast ballots in the state’s primaries. The most high-profile contest on the ballot is the governor’s race, in which Gov. Dan McKee (D) appears to be the underdog in a primary challenge from former CVS executive Helena Foulkes. - The fate of Missouri’s congressional map is unclear after a federal judge ruled it’s too late for the state to switch back to use an old map that maintained the status quo. The ruling came after Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in a separate case declined to lift a block on the new map, which would likely net the GOP another House seat in November. - An appeals court panel will hear arguments today in a case over access to the abortion pill mifepristone, the latest battle over abortion rights. The case could eventually end up before the Supreme Court. Leading the Day A Mercedes decorated with images of President Trump is seen outside before the Republican convention Sept. 8, 2026, in Dallas. (Julia Demaree Nikhinson, Associated Press) TEXAS BOUND: The president, members of his administration and various Republican congressional candidates are heading to Dallas today for the start of the first-ever GOP midterm convention. Democrats held midterm conventions a few times in the 1970s and 1980s, and had floated their own such gathering this year before deciding against it. Trump is set to appear both nights of the event, delivering a keynote address tonight and closing remarks tomorrow. Vice President Vance will deliver the keynote address tomorrow evening. The event will feature more than 100 speakers and try to set a similar tone to the quadrennial presidential nomination conventions that take over national attention for several days every four years. The speakers include members of the administration such as Attorney General Todd Blanche, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and former White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt in addition to top congressional Republicans like House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), the head of the Senate GOP’s campaign arm. Key congressional candidates like Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), who are both locked in tough Senate races, will also appear. Trump is hoping the convention, which Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters and some other Republicans have described as a “Trump-a-palooza,” can serve as a rallying moment for the party as it faces a challenge holding onto both chambers of Congress this November. But Republicans have expressed mixed feelings about the convention, worrying that it will tie them to the president as his approval rating has continued to drop. That’s what Democrats are hoping for as they also plan counterprogramming to hammer the GOP and draw a contrast to the party in power. The Hill’s Julia Mueller reports for The Hill Insider on what to know as the convention gets underway. ▪ The Hill: The Memo: Midterm convention presents GOP with stark dilemma. ▪ The Dallas Morning News: How Texas Republicans are getting into the convention. TURN THE PAGE: Smithsonian Institution Secretary Lonnie Bunch III announced Tuesday that he will retire from his role by the end of the year after more than seven years leading the organization. The news of the pending change in leadership comes as the institution has clashed with the president over how history is presented at its various museums. The administration threatened last month to end federal agencies’ participation with the Smithsonian as it accused its leaders of promoting a “culture of ideological activism” with its exhibits. Bunch told The Washington Post that pressure from the president didn’t contribute to his decision to step down, as he had been considering retirement for a year to spend more time with his family. The Trump administration has pushed to change how multiple subjects are discussed at museum exhibits, including slavery and Trump’s impeachments. “We’re at a time when people are challenging that independence,” Bunch told the Post. “I feel very strongly that it is as independent as we were before, and that I will continue to fight — for as long as I’m in this chair — for the independence of the Smithsonian.” Bunch is the Smithsonian’s first Black leader and the founder of the National Museum of African American History and Culture. ▪ The Atlantic: Why Bunch is leaving. ▪ The Hill: Veterans group launches campaign against Trump’s planned arch. NOT SO FAST: Kansas’s Republican senators are breaking with the president over his push to prevent the Canadian jet maker Bombardier from selling planes in the U.S. amid the escalating trade war with the country’s northern neighbor. Sen. Jerry Moran, the state’s senior senator, said he reached out to the Trump administration to make sure that the president is aware of Bombardier’s “significant contributions” to the state. He said the company supports a local workforce of more than 1,000 employees. Sen. Roger Marshall said he would fight the proposed ban and has also brought his concerns to the White House. “We agree on the mission: bring more good-paying manufacturing jobs back to Wichita. America buys more than half of what Bombardier sells. If that’s the market, more of those planes should be built here,” said Marshall, who is facing a more-competitive-than-expected reelection race. Trump issued his warning that Bombardier would be blocked from the U.S. market on Monday because he said Gulfstream, a subsidiary of the U.S. industrial and technology company General Dynamics, is blocked from doing business in Canada. That came a day before Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on $27.6 billion in U.S. products took effect, matching Trump’s 50 percent tariffs on many Canadian imports. ▪ The Hill: What to know as Canada’s tariffs take effect. ▪ The Hill: Trump banning Canada’s dairy products, motorcycles. NEAR ROCK BOTTOM: U.S. reading scores have fallen to close to their lowest point in the past 25 years, global exam results released Tuesday show. More than half a dozen countries outperformed the U.S. on the Program for International Student Assessment for reading — including Canada, the U.K., Singapore and Australia. Parts of China also scored better. The evaluation from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) measures how well 15-year-olds apply their knowledge to real-world problems. It’s administered to more than 80 countries every three years, analyzing math, science and reading skills. The scores released this year marked the lowest average level of performance across all OECD countries — not just the U.S. — since the test was first given in 2000. ▪ TIME: Why U.S. student test scores have seen a decadelong decline. Where & When - The president will receive an intelligence briefing at 11 a.m. He will depart the White House to travel to Dallas, where he will participate in a MAGA, Inc., meeting at 6 p.m. EDT. He will then attend the RNC midterm convention at 7 p.m. EDT and deliver remarks at 9:15 p.m. EDT. - The House and Senate are out. Zoom In President Trump speaks and announces action to help farmers and ranchers with meat processing, as a group of farmers and ranchers stand behind, Sept. 4, 2026, in the Oval Office of the White House, in Washington. (Jacquelyn Martin, Associated Press) PROVOKER-IN-CHIEF: Trump is turning to online trolling and picking fights with critics as Republican anxiety grows ahead of the midterms. Trump drew attention over the weekend with multiple posts raising the idea of renaming New Mexico to “New America” and showing a map with the U.S. flag covering all of North America, Central America and Iceland. The post led to Iceland summoning the U.S. ambassador to answer for the post. He also shared AI-generated videos depicting himself as the Green Lantern and beating Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney with a hockey stick. Some Republicans told The Hill’s Julia Manchester that the posts are part of the president’s strategy to energize his base as the GOP faces historic headwinds going into November. “He is not crazy. He’s doing this on purpose: he thinks it motivates his base. And he is usually right about that. Or at least, the party has to trust him on that,” a former Trump administration official said. Other Republicans said Trump’s online presence will ultimately not have an impact on voters, as his posts are mostly consumed by an online and insider audience. “Do I think it shows he’s not focused on what matters? Yes. Do I think he’s doing it to motivate his base? I don’t know. But in either direction, I don’t think it matters,” one strategist said. The White House suggested Trump can “walk and chew gum at the same time.” Spokesperson Allison Schuster said Trump is “well equipped to stand up for America’s national interests on the world stage while working to lower costs here at home.” ▪ The Guardian: Trump renames places, poses as superhero in social media blitz. ▪ The Hill: Trump’s Canada fight puts GOP candidates in a vice. Elsewhere View of an area in the E1 zone near Maale Adumim, an Israeli settlement in the occupied West Bank, Sept. 8, 2026. (Ohad Zwigenberg, Associated Press) BANDING TOGETHER: The U.K., France and Canada announced Tuesday that they will implement a ban on trading with Israeli settlements in the West Bank as part of a “turning point” in efforts to reach a two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The statement notes that this month marks a year since the three countries decided to formally recognize a Palestinian state. “The time has come to take further action to uphold our commitment to protect the two-state solution, our interests and to stand up for our values, before it is too late,” U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham, French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in the statement. Secretary of State Marco Rubio responded to news of the joint ban on Tuesday, telling reporters the U.S. will “obviously” not participate in this action. The move came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to move forward with expanding settlements into the E1 area of the West Bank. E1 is a 4.5-square-mile area that’s east of Jerusalem. Development into this area would effectively cut the West Bank into two and has spurred significant opposition from around the world. The Associated Press reported that the economic impact of the countries cutting off trade will likely be limited as the settlements only produce a small amount of mostly agricultural exports. But it’s a symbolic denunciation from some of Israel’s closest allies. U.K. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband said the ban on trade will be in effect in six to nine months. Several other European countries have banned goods from the settlements, are in the process of doing so or have pledged to “support further action.” ▪ Reuters: West Bank settler violence flares. ▪ The Jerusalem Post: Netanyahu orders removal of outposts amid U.S. pressure. Opinion - Don’t whitewash Paterno, but don’t cancel him, either, Jonathan Zimmerman writes in The Hill. - Massachusetts late-term abortion extremism can help Republicans in the midterms, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America President Marjorie Dannenfelser writes in The Hill. The Closer Lindsay Clancy, looks toward reporters in the courtroom during proceedings in her murder trial, Aug. 20, 2026, in Plymouth, Mass. (Josh Reynolds, Associated Press) And finally … The wish from Lindsay Clancy’s attorney that the president will step in to pardon his client after a mistrial was declared in her case will remain unfulfilled — even if Trump wanted to grant her clemency. Attorney Kevin Reddington said in an interview with “Good Morning America” on Tuesday that he hopes Trump would consider a pardon. But that’s not possible, as the president can only issue pardons and commutations for federal crimes, and Clancy is facing state charges of murder in Massachusetts. A jury was unable to reach a unanimous verdict in Clancy’s trial after days of deliberations, causing the judge to declare the jury hung. Prosecutors will have the opportunity to retry the case, drop the charges or make a plea deal with Clancy. A hearing is scheduled for later this month to discuss next steps. Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey (D) declined to say whether she was considering a pardon for Clancy on Tuesday, noting that she doesn’t have the authority to do so without a conviction taking place first. Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.