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The National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) has received an Outperform rating from Macquarie, which initiated coverage on the recently listed exchange with a target price of ₹1,965, citing its dominant market position, strong liquidity, technology infrastructure and scope to expand beyond transaction-led revenues. The brokerage described NSE as the "Dominator", highlighting its leading market share, integrated technology stack, deep liquidity and broad range of services. “We view NSE, India's largest stock exchange, as ‘The Dominator’, due to its leading market share and power. Full set of services, technology stack and deep liquidity make NSE the lynchpin of India's financialisation,” Macquarie said. At the brokerage's target, the stock would have an upside of around 10% from its last closing price of ₹1,792. Macquarie said NSE's entrenched network effects and strong cash generation support its premium valuation, while new products and rising non-transaction revenues could provide further upside. The brokerage expects the exchange to deliver a 12% revenue CAGR between FY26 and FY30, with margins remaining around the mid-70% range. It also expects India's broader stock-exchange market to grow at a 12-14% CAGR over the same period, supported by rising investor participation and product expansion. National Stock Exchange (NSE) shares witnessed some profit booking on Friday, September 25, falling 1.4% to ₹1792 per share on BSE, after gaining nearly 2% in the previous session. The stock had made its debut on the BSE on Thursday at ₹1,800 per share, a modest 0.84% premium to its issue price of ₹1785. Macquarie's bullish thesis on NSE rests largely on the exchange's scale and its position across multiple segments of India's capital-market infrastructure. The exchange operates across trading, clearing and settlement, listing, connectivity, market data and index licensing, allowing it to generate revenue from several parts of the financial-market ecosystem. Macquarie said these capabilities make NSE a key part of India's financialisation story. The brokerage noted that NSE retained dominant positions across several segments in FY26, including a 93% share of the cash market and nearly 100% of equity futures. Its equity-options premium turnover share stood at 74.7%, while it held 100% market share in currency options and interest-rate futures based on the metrics cited by Macquarie. However, Macquarie expects some market-share pressure in cash equities and options over the coming years, particularly as competition from BSE increases and mechanisms such as Smart Order Routing and Common Contract Notes gain adoption. It has nevertheless factored in market expansion and new product launches to partly offset this impact. A key part of the longer-term thesis is the expansion of non-transaction revenues. Macquarie said these currently account for around 21% of NSE's revenue and expects them to grow at a 13% CAGR through FY30, supported by areas such as data, analytics, index-related services, connectivity and post-trade businesses. “India's exchange industry is entering a structurally attractive phase where revenue growth is increasingly being driven not just by trading volumes, but by a broader mix of data, connectivity, listings and index-linked monetisation,” Macquarie said. The brokerage also highlighted NSE's strong operating leverage. It expects EBITDA margins to recover from 75.5% in FY26 to around 76.7% by FY28 and remain broadly stable thereafter, supported by the exchange's relatively low variable costs and technology-led operating model. Macquarie forecasts NSE's revenue to rise from ₹166 billion in FY26 to ₹180.8 billion in FY27, ₹203.8 billion in FY28 and ₹230.8 billion in FY29. Net profit is estimated to increase from ₹103 billion in FY26 to ₹117.5 billion in FY27, ₹132.5 billion in FY28 and ₹149.7 billion in FY29. Macquarie expects EBITDA margins to remain resilient at around 76.7% from FY28 onwards, compared with 75.5% in FY26. The brokerage also highlighted NSE's strong balance sheet, with around ₹510 billion of own cash and ₹4 billion of debt in FY26. “We expect 12% FY26-30E revenue CAGR with resilient mid-70s margins, while optionality from new products, non-transaction revenues and a higher P/N ratio remains largely unpriced,” Macquarie said. Macquarie further stated that the valuation multiple was supported by India's ongoing financialisation, NSE's dominant position, double-digit earnings growth, strong cash generation, its net cash position and consistent return on equity. The brokerage expects NSE's ROE to remain around 35% through FY30. The brokerage also expects earnings growth to support capital returns. It forecasts dividend per share to rise from ₹35 in FY26 to ₹50.5 by FY30, while maintaining a 75% payout assumption from FY27. Macquarie identified CAS resolution, growth in monthly options volumes and increased market activity linked to larger IPOs as key catalysts for NSE. At the same time, regulatory changes, the exchange's dependence on index options and weaker-than-expected traction in non-transaction businesses remain key risks to its investment thesis. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions. Pranati Deva is a seasoned financial journalist with over a decade of experience in high-pressure newsroom environments, currently working as a Senior Sub Editor at LiveMint. Over the years, she has developed a reputation for sharp editorial judgement, a strong grasp of market dynamics, and the ability to translate complex financial developments into clear, engaging stories for a wide audience. <br><br> Her core areas of coverage include stock markets, leading listed companies, currencies, and commodities, with a particular strength in fast-paced, real-time market reporting. She is known for handling breaking market news, earnings-driven stock movements, and macroeconomic developments with speed, accuracy, and context—qualities that are essential in financial journalism. <br><br> Pranati has built a diverse and credible professional track record across some of India’s most respected news organisations, including MintGenie, CNBC-TV18, Business Standard and EconomicTimes.com. During her stints at these platforms, she produced data-driven market stories, curated and steered live blogs during volatile trading sessions, and conducted interviews with market veterans, fund managers, economists, and industry experts. Her work often combines on-ground reporting with analytical depth, helping readers make sense of daily market fluctuations and longer-term trends. An alumnus of the Symbiosis Institute of Media and Communications and Hansraj College, University of Delhi, Pranati brings a strong academic foundation to her journalism. She specialises in real-time financial reporting, with a keen focus on precision, balance, and insight, aiming to decode market movements in a way that is both informative and accessible to readers across experience levels. Catch all the Business News , Market News , Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates. Oops! 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