The Gulf faces uneven rebound from war downturn

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As diplomats, schoolchildren, and business executives trickle back into the region, inbound flight data for August paints a picture of uneven recovery. Abu Dhabi is whole again: Arrivals into Zayed International were within 18 flights of last August, according to data provided to Semafor by Cirium. Dubai, which relies much more on tourism, is not: Inbound flights to DXB were down 17% and seats down 16% year-on-year, while Doha’s flights fell 13%. Dubai alone accounts for more than three-quarters of the region’s lost seats.
Dubai Airports put numbers to the damage this week, reporting that DXB handled 31.5 million passengers in the first half, down 31.3% compared to 2025. The airport had forecast close to 100 million passengers for 2026 before the US-Iran war began. Emirates President Tim Clark said last month the airline was flying at 90% of capacity, but Lufthansa, British Airways, and Singapore Airlines have all extended route suspensions in the region.

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