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If one form of energy becomes the cheapest, most secure, and cleanest, you’d probably adjust your economy to use more of it, right? That’s one of the ideas underpinning a report the International Energy Agency issued last week about the global move toward electrification. Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, discussed some of the concepts from the report the following day at the United Nations. “Many, many years in the energy world, we had three choices in front of us. Shall I choose the most secure energy option? Shall I choose the most economic energy option? Or shall I choose the cleanest energy option?” he asked. “We have to make choices, we have to make trade-offs but when we look at the world today, for the first time in years, all of these three objectives are getting aligned.” Birol’s referring to the “energy trilemma,” a concept in energy and economics research about the need to balance cost, security and environmental impact of sources and systems. He said those priorities are increasingly aligning in part because of the Iran war, which has driven up fuel prices and exacerbated concerns about energy security. It’s notable that the leader of the world’s leading energy research organization is so optimistic about electrification. I reached out to energy researchers this week to get their reaction. But first, some numbers: With $100 worth of gasoline, an internal-combustion-engine car would go 862 miles; with $100 worth of electricity, an electric vehicle would go 2,310 miles—nearly a threefold advantage for the EV. For home heating, $100 would buy enough fuel for a gas boiler to provide 30 days of heating; it would also fund enough electricity for a heat pump to provide 42 days of heating—a 40 percent edge for the heat pump. The figures are 2025 global averages from the IEA report, and the gaps are probably larger today with gasoline and natural gas experiencing price spikes that exceed rising electricity costs.
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