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The odds seem to be in favour of JK Cement Ltd. Strong demand in key markets of north and central India amid an underwhelming monsoon season and upcoming state elections in Uttar Pradesh should enable a faster ramp-up of the newly commissioned Panna line-2 unit in Madhya Pradesh. This should aid market-share gains in central India and drive volumes in the seasonally weak September quarter (Q2FY27). Grey cement volumes rose 18% year-on-year to 5.96 million tonnes (mt) in Q1FY27, buoyed by incremental volumes from central India and capacities commissioned in Bihar. While JK gained market share in central India during Q1, it managed to maintain it in north and south. Volume push JK’s strong track record of timely commissioning of capacity has helped it deliver an industry-leading 14% organic domestic grey cement volume CAGR over FY19-26, said Antique Stock Broking in a report dated 23 September. The brokerage anticipates 20% volume growth in FY27 to 25 mt, ahead of the company guidance of 10% to 22.5-23 mt. JK Cement continues to push the pedal on capacity expansions. Capital expenditure for FY27 is seen at ₹3,500 crore and for FY28 at ₹1,200 crore. Currently, it is undertaking a 7 mtpa grey cement capacity expansion project in the north. The FY28 capex can increase as it targets to increase grey cement capacity from 32.3 mtpa to 40 mtpa by FY28-end and reach 50 mtpa by FY30. This could keep debt elevated. Cost pressure To be sure, JK Cement is not immune to the industry-wide cost pressure anticipated in Q2FY27 results. JK’s management expects overall costs to increase by ₹150/tonne sequentially, primarily due to higher fuel and diesel costs. It expects fuel cost to peak in Q2, before moderating thereafter. Packaging costs could be lower sequentially in Q2. Akin to peers, JK is also relying on usage of green energy and alternative fuels to mitigate fuel price volatility and save cost. According to Systematix Shares and Stocks (India), JK Cement's industry-leading green power share of 53.5%, with a roadmap to increase this to 75% by FY30, is expected to drive structural cost efficiencies and sustain one of the lowest power & fuel cost structures in the sector. So far in 2026, the stock is down 7% and trades at 14 times EV/Ebitda based on FY28 estimates, showed Bloomberg data. Besides its core grey cement business, developments in the paint business, which is expected to achieve Ebitda breakeven in FY27, is worth monitoring.
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