Reliance shares hit a fresh 52-week low; stock plunges 24% YTD - Time to buy or stay away?

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Reliance Industries shares hit their fresh 52-week low to fall below ₹1,200 in intraday trade on the BSE on Monday, 28 August, amid a widespread selloff in the Indian stock market. Reliance share price declined more than 2% to hit its one-year low of ₹1,196.05, while the equity benchmark Sensex dropped 1.6% to drop to its intraday low of 72,716 during Monday's session.
Eventually, Reliance shares ended 2.24% lower at ₹1,198.50 on the BSE. The Sensex closed at 72,771.72, down 1.52%.
Reliance is reportedly planning to raise up to ₹10,000 crore through asset-backed securities (ABS).
Bloomberg reported, quoting people familiar with the matter, that the Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate is planning to raise $1 billion through asset-backed securities.
The report further said that the securities will be backed by rental receivables from group companies, including Reliance Jio Infocomm. The notes are due in five years and will carry a coupon in the 8.35%- 8.40% range, according to the report.
On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, Reliance shares are down about 24% compared to a nearly 15% fall in the equity benchmark Sensex. Over the last year, the stock has been down nearly 13% compared to an almost 10% fall in the Sensex. On a monthly scale, the stock has gained only in April and July this year. So far in September, it is down nearly 7%, looking set to extend losses for the second consecutive month.
Reliance shares have faced selling pressure despite healthy Q1FY27 earnings. Its profit rose by 16% year-on-year (YoY) and 23.42% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to ₹20,946 crore, while the revenue from operations rose by 25.41% YoY and 4.43% QoQ to ₹3,11,850 crore.
On the fundamentals front, experts do not see any material negative for the stock as they believe the recent correction reflects concerns around the retail segment's growth, higher capital expenditure, and subdued free-cash-flow conversion.
"Reliance Industries’ recent correction, in our view, is largely a function of near-term concerns around retail growth, elevated capex and subdued free-cash-flow conversion, rather than any change in the long-term investment thesis," said Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research, Religare Broking.
Vinit Bolinjkar, the head of research at Ventura, said the market appears to be concerned about the conflict in West Asia, which has made crude prices volatile and disrupted energy supply chains, raising questions about how long strong O2C margins can last.
Investors are also looking closely at returns on RIL’s substantial capital spending.
"The balance sheet remains manageable, with net debt at 0.57 times annualised EBITDA, but stronger free cash flow would give the market more confidence. Jio’s ARPU continues to rise, which also raises expectations for future growth," said Bolinjkar.
Moreover, there is some pressure from the foreign institutional investors' side also.
As the stock is a large index constituent, it may see sharper share-price moves when institutions reduce equity exposure during broader market weakness.
Mishra, like several other experts, remains constructive on Reliance, supported by sustained momentum in Jio, improving O2C (oil-to-chemical) profitability, and the significant value embedded across its consumer and new-energy businesses.
"Jio remains the key structural growth driver, with healthy subscriber trends, improving ARPU (average revenue per user) and operating leverage providing visibility on earnings growth. O2C profitability should benefit from improved refining economics, although we remain mindful of the cyclical nature of the business. Retail performance warrants monitoring, particularly the pace of revenue growth and margin recovery," said Mishra.
"The potential Jio Platforms IPO could further unlock value and improve the visibility of the underlying businesses. Following the recent correction, valuations have become more reasonable, in our view, offering an attractive entry point for long-term investors. We maintain a buy view with a target price of ₹1,696," said Mishra.
Bolinjkar said for investors with a multi-year horizon, the recent weakness in the stock is an opportunity to build a position gradually.
"Our view rests on O2C earnings, the scale of Jio and Retail, and the potential for the Jio listing to bring greater visibility to the value of the digital business. We would favour buying in tranches because crude volatility and the returns on recent capital spending remain near-term uncertainties. Short-term investors may prefer to wait for clearer evidence of stable O2C margins and improving free cash flow," said Bolinjkar.
Reliance stock is currently reflecting a cautious technical setup on the weekly chart.
Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Technical Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, underscored that the stock has slipped below both the 200-EMA at ₹1,303 and 45-WMA at ₹1,325, indicating weakening medium-term momentum.
Weekly RSI is around 35, below its RSI average, further reflecting pressure.
According to Patel, immediate support is placed near ₹1,200, followed by ₹1,150–1,170. On the upside, ₹1,300–1,325 is the major resistance zone, followed by ₹1,400.
"Sustaining above ₹1,325 would improve the technical structure, while a decisive break below ₹1,200 could lead to further weakness," said Patel.
After hitting an all-time high in January 2026, the stock entered a corrective phase, forming a pattern of lower lows and lower highs
Vipin Kumar, AVP-Research at Globe Capital Market, pointed out that sustained trading below both its short-term and long-term moving averages confirms a weak chart structure.
"Strong positional support lies in the ₹1,100– ₹1,150 spot zone. We suggest traders wait for price stability around these levels before accumulating the stock for the medium to long term," said Kumar.
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Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
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