loading
loading
Listen to this article in summarized format Dollar debt from countries in the emerging world returned 1.4% over the past year despite the recent turmoil that has sent yields on US Treasuries to the highest in nearly two decades. Even with oil above $100 a barrel and investors bracing for higher-for-longer global interest rates, credit spreads are at their tightest since 2007, raising alarm bells for money managers who say the bonds are bound to sell off. “When we have rising government rates, I get a little concerned on what that does to the level of spread,” said Jeff Grills, the head of EM debt at Aegon. “When I look at where are the great opportunities, they are hard to find.” Read more: Wall Street Week Ahead: Jobs report, inflation data to test US rate path, economic strength Grills recently trimmed his exposure to Colombia, while adding debt from higher-rated credits like Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and the Philippines. “We’ve been a little bit more on a retrenchment mode,” Urquieta said. The pullback comes after emerging markets proved surprisingly resilient through a sharp repricing in global rates and the conflict in the Middle East. Sticky inflation and a resilient US economy have fueled a surge in Treasury yields as traders price in more aggressive path for Federal Reserve tightening. Yet emerging-market dollar bonds have so far managed to hold on to gains. Read more: Nifty at key 23,000 support: Can bulls trigger a technical rebound? Spreads on developing-nation dollar bonds over US Treasuries stand at just 170 basis points, the tightest since 2007, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. data. Caution is beginning to show up in fund flows, too. The world’s largest exchange-traded fund tracking emerging-market hard-currency bonds suffered some of its biggest single-day outflows since March last week. Some are opting to move up in quality rater than abandoning emerging debt all together. At PPM America, Matt Graves has been adding duration through higher-rated borrowers such as Morocco while paring some of the riskier positions, including Angola, that performed strongly earlier in the year. Others see the Treasury selloff creating opportunities in beaten-down investment-grade bonds. Fernando Grisales, a senior portfolio manager at Schroders in New York, has added notes from Saudi Aramco, the state-owned national oil and natural gas company of Saudi Arabia, and Mexico’s dollar debt. “There is value opening up in the long end of the curve in investment grade credits that are very robust,” he said. JPMorgan Asset Management is taking a different route. Pierre-Yves Bareau, its head of EM debt, has reduced the portfolio’s sensitivity to a credit selloff and shifted some of that risk toward local-currency bonds, including Mexico, where he says swap markets are pricing in too many rate hikes. Local-currency debt is still up 0.9% on average this year, while a gauge of developing-nation stocks has gained more than 23%, outperforming developed-world equities. High local interest rates and elevated commodity prices have also helped make markets like Brazil and Colombia attractive to investors. “We are a little bit less at risk,” he said. “We’ve been taking the other side a bit more through the local markets rather than credit.” (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price
document fetched 2026-09-28 02:55