Gold, silver rates decline on MCX ahead of US Fed's June meeting minutes; experts highlight key levels to watch

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Gold and silver prices fell in the domestic futures market on Tuesday (7 July) morning as investors awaited the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's June policy meeting for further cues on the central bank's monetary policy path.
MCX gold August contracts were 0.52% down at ₹1,46,148 per 10 grams, while MCX silver September futures were 1.14% down at ₹2,33,416 per kg around 9:05 am.
The minutes of the US Federal Reserve's June policy meeting are due on 8 July. Most experts expect the Fed to hike rates at least once this year, as inflation remains above its 2% target.
Earlier in June, markets expected three rate hikes this year as the US-Iran conflict sent crude oil prices soaring and inflationary pressures rose.
However, softer-than-expected June payroll data has tempered expectations of aggressive Fed monetary tightening this year.
"Investors are now awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, which could provide further clarity on the future interest rate path and influence the next directional move in gold," Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services, noted.
Meanwhile, reports of Iran targeting commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz added to geopolitical concerns, weighing on gold prices.
Axios reported, citing two US officials, that Tehran's military fired two missiles at commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night. The report added that Washington is likely to retaliate with strikes against Iranian targets.
Singh pointed out that the overall technical structure remains constructive, with prices continuing to hold above the crucial ₹1,40,500 support zone.
On the upside, immediate resistance is placed near the 21-day EMA around ₹1,48,000, while a decisive breakout above this level could accelerate the recovery towards the ₹1,50,000– ₹1,51,000 zone, said Singh.
Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research said gold has support at $4,135 and $4,100, while resistance is at $4,194 and $4,220 per troy ounce, and silver has support at $61.20 and $59.80, while resistance is at $63.40 and $64.20 per troy ounce in today’s session.
MCX gold has support at ₹1,46,100 and ₹1,45,500 and resistance at ₹1,47,400 and ₹1,48,200, while silver has support at ₹2,33,300 and ₹2,30,000 and resistance is at ₹2,38,800 and ₹2,41,000, said Jain.
Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, believes MCX gold August futures may decline to ₹1,46,300 per 10 grams. He sees ₹1,47,300 as a key resistance.
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